Last Week and Times to Come!!!

Hi This is my first blog on eToro . I had quite a chat with myself before wrting anything but finally I decided to go for it . This is more a record of my tradngs and my insights in the market.

Last week was in no way go trading week for me . I started with impression of a market where european currencies were not performing very well and not having any reason to perform very well. My trading style is alway high risk , high return which means big transactions (most 2000, 5000 at 200 lev). This gives me an opportunity to utilise my funds fully and earn a good benefit . One very important thing you should know in this kind of strategy is is when to get out of the market and that where I went wrong. I started with my fav currency GBP USD and tried on some trade in EUR USD .

Market was looking quite constricted in from monday onwards and I had an overhead of trying to trade through my two accounts. yes my santoshtiwari account got relased after a long analysis from etoro and if nothing I wanted to trade in it for old times sake … Well , they always say dont mix business and emotions

The place where my analysis went wrong was FOMC decision. I expected the quantitative easing my not the reaction. and thats where I made the cardinal mistake of a forex trader . Instead of following the market I willed the market to follow my chain of thought . The trades went against me and my count of loss of this week stands at -66000 USD .

That was past now lest looks at next week what do I think . My trades are usually longterm (atleast they are intended to be before I chicken out and take profit and run) so My views are

1) There is nothing strong happening on GBPUSD side except for few good comments from MPC members . Dont underestimate it , it is rarely that good comments come from MPC so that can make an impact. My view is the cross coming down has a probablity of 40/60.

2) EUR/USD is at overbought but it need a fundamental trigger to bring it down. I will be watching the comments from ECB very closely this week.

3) Keep an eye of bank/financial institutions results . GBPUSD is very sensitive to those comments

The other fundamental items I have in my radar is

Treasury to unveil bank rescue bid soon http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52K1F520090321

Stock investors banking on toxic-asset plan http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE52K01M20090321

Geithner’s big week offers a chance at redemption http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE52L0YU20090322

Euro halts its advance ahead of the German ZEW report,

Although EURUSD did manage to break above 1.3 yesterday, it did not, as I suspected on my last post, managed to advance beyond 1.3080. Still, this morning we are not trading far from 1.3, and a second try upwards is still in the cards.

Attention this morning is set on the ZEW report which will be released at 10:00 GMT,
The ZEW report is a Survey of 350 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany, when an Above 0 indicates optimism, and below 0 indicates pessimism.

Analysts forecast a -7.7 , down from last month’s -5.8, a worse than expected result could cup the Euro’s recent advance. If the EURUSD will not find enough steam to lift itself above 1.3 today, we can expect a retrace downwards possibly to meet the first support level at 1.2863.

also , pay attention to the U.S reports coming later in the day.

- Building Permits 12:30 GMT

- PPI m/m 12:30